Scientists and global warming advocates have pushed policy makers around the globe to consider initiatives to reduce carbon emissions, cut back on fossil fuel consumption and decrease the overall effects of climate change. This global shift in perspective has caused significant policy change in China, France, Norway, the U.K., India and many other countries. When coupled with rapidly improving electric vehicle technologies, policy changes could potentially disrupt or kill of fossil fuel-powered vehicles. Experts argue that such a transition could happen sooner rather than later.
Countries around the world have experienced a shift in perspective in recent decades regarding issues like climate change, fossil fuels and pollution. China, the world’s second largest economy, has traditionally been a major contributor to global pollution levels. The rising tide of research regarding climate change, however, has led the country to pursue significant policy change including ending the production and sale of fossil fuel cars. The vice minister of industry and information technology, Xin Guobin, believes that such a move will have a “profound impact on the environment and growth of China’s auto industry.”
On top of phasing out fossil fuel-powered cars, China has provided government subsidies to local manufacturers working on electric vehicles and has promised to cap its carbon emissions by 2030. Similarly, France, Norway and the Netherlands have announced plans to reduce air pollution and curb global warming. The United Kingdom followed suit and stated their intentions in July to completely ban the sale of fossil fuel-powered cars by 2040. In May, India announced major plans to make electric vehicles completely self-sufficient. Piyush Goyal, the minister of coal and mines, explains “the idea is that by 2030 not a single petrol or diesel car should be sold in the country.”
Currently, electric vehicles account for around 1.7 percent of the total car sales in China and two to three percent of U.S. car sales. The rise of electric vehicle technology is the biggest factor in determining the future of both fossil fuel-powered cars and the oil industry. The chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell, Ben Van Beurden, explains the transition to a world with a declining demand of oil: “When will this happen? We do not know. But will it happen? We are certain.” The industry is in debate over how long the transition will take, but overall everyone agrees that electric vehicles will inevitably take over the fossil fuel-powered vehicles.
Stanford University’s Tony Seba recently conducted a study on both electric and fossil-fuel vehicles. The economist predicts that within the next eight years fossil fuel-powered vehicles will no longer be sold anywhere around the globe. Pressure from scientists, researchers and climate change advocates have already pushed governments into initiating policy changes and subsidizing alternatives like electric vehicles. Seba further believes that the transition from fossil fuel-powered cars to electric ones will radically disrupt the oil market. The transition will lead “to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.” Seba argues that individuals of the future will be more likely to stop driving entirely in favor of self-driving automated electric vehicles, and personal car ownership will rapidly decline. The death of fossil fuel-powered vehicles is inevitable because alternative automated electric vehicles are cheaper, safer, longer lasting and better for the environment.
Seba argues that this inevitable transition is likely only two to three years away. The head of research at Carbon Tracker, James Leaton, argues that “there are a number of low-carbon technologies about to achieve critical mass decades before some companies expect.” Skeptics, however, remain unconvinced. Opponents argue that the massive prevalence of fossil fuel vehicles, technical limitations and human tendency to resist change all make it highly unlikely that electric vehicles could dominate the market within the next twenty years.
China’s recent commitment to banning fossil fuel-powered vehicles is a major indication of what direction the world is headed. As Bill Russo, the director of Gao Feng Advisory Group in Shanghai, explains “the rest of the world will follow because the rest of the world can’t lose China’s market. It's too big. The rise of electric vehicles has propelled governmental policy shifts and enabled a transition to more eco-friendly alternatives. Many predict that this transition and the consequential death of fossil fuel-powered cars is much closer than it appears.
