The original space race got its start in the 1950s, during the Cold War. With US-Soviet tensions high, outer space was one arena where nations could compete without warfare. Today, the world is engaging in another space race—albeit one with far different goals and origins.
In the 1960s, getting to the moon was important because nobody had ever done so before. While the Soviet space program successfully launched the Luna 2 lunar probe, the US eventually succeeded at putting the first man on the moon.
Now, the moon represents far more than a research and historical milestone. With space programs around the world planning toward missions to Mars, the moon has achieved new strategic significance. Setting up a base there would greatly simplify the process of launching a craft to Mars, as well as allow for more research into the long-term effects of dwelling in space. Right now, it's hard to say what kind of impact long-term exposure to cosmic radiation might have on humans. This is just one thing that needs to be sorted out before we can send a manned mission all the way to Mars.
There's only one problem here: Not every space program is willing to cooperate to do it.
The original space race was just that: a race. This time around, many countries are putting their resources together in order to increase the odds of a successful mission (and claim a stake in whatever comes of it).
Right now, NASA is working closely with private companies like SpaceX to develop the tech necessary for a successful moon landing and exploration. This doesn't come cheap, either. With a roughly $4 billion price tag on each rocket launch, cooperation between different nations is necessary just to afford the cutting-edge tech needed to succeed.
At the moment, the US and Japan are working on a framework that would allow them to collaborate on several different long-term space projects. Toyota Motor Corp and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency are already working on a moon rover, and a Japanese astronaut will inhabit NASA's moon-orbiting Gateway space station.
China, however, has been more secretive in their endeavors. All that's really known right now is that they plan to have astronauts on the moon by 2030, just a few years beyond NASA's projected timeline of 2025-2026.
Russia is also involved, though their position is a bit up-in-the-air. The U.S. and Russia have collaborated heavily in the past, and Soyuz rockets have carried American astronauts to the International Space Station ever since the final flight of the Space Shuttle program. U.S. and Russian researchers are still cooperating on the ISS, though Russia has hinted that it may withdraw.
With so many countries racing to get back to the moon, what about Mars? Setting up a habitable lunar base is considered the first step toward a successful mission to Mars, but, assuming everyone meets their goals, who's the most likely to make it to the red planet?
In late 2021, it was looking like China and Russia might beat the US's 2033 target date. This was largely because these countries invested more heavily in researching novel, more efficient nuclear propulsion technologies—an area the US had neglected. According to senior NASA advisor Bhavya Lal, nuclear propulsion was just one of three aspects where the US' program appeared to be deficient.
This is one area where NASA's collaboration with tech companies can help the US catch up. SpaceX's Starship, a mega rocket intended to deliver astronauts to the moon and Mars, is going through its final preparations. On January 23rd, the company loaded propellant into the rocket and went through a countdown. This allowed them to simulate the entire launch procedure, short of actually firing up the engines. The next step will involve securing the booster in place and briefly lighting it up to see how well it does.
If all goes well, this brings the SpaceX closer to securing a license to launch. Will it out compete Russia and China's efforts? It's hard to say. Both countries have been relatively opaque, though it's known that they're aggressively investing in a wide range of technologies. SpaceX's first crewed mission to Mars could launch as soon as 2024, but this hinges on everything going well as well as a considerable amount of luck. More realistically, the company may be looking at a 2026 target date.
Who will win the race to Mars? Right now, it's a close race. The global situation is hindering some attempts to collaborate across countries and causing some key players to play their cards close to the vest. While China and Russia are heavily investing in some key innovative technologies, NASA's collaboration with Japan and private companies could help them make up the difference.
